Hello again brothers, comrades, friends and hopefully some people who joined here since the last time I was here. Sorry for being away for so long, I was very bussy with studies and my trademark Iraqi lack of organising any of my time.
How have all of you been, I really hope you all have been keeping healthy, happy and ofcourse active on this awsome forum. It's really great to be here again after boring study which is no where near as satifying as all the awsome political debates we have here. I'll be going to celebrate Christmas and new year with my family, relax from all the studying and trying my best to be as much here as possible during this period, before I have to go back to study again.
Anyway, I want to start of my return with more current news from Iraq. I have managed to pick up a few interesting news stories about Iraq, while skimming to catch up on the news which I have been largely neglecting since my last visit. Anyway, a short summary of those stories is;
Massive suicide car bombings in Iraq which killed over 100 people. These are thought to be done by Al Qaeda and aimed at the Iraqi government offices in an attempt to destabilise the government. As is the all too common tragedy with these is that it is always innocent civilians with no fault of their own who get murdered in these genocides, while the government is largely unaffected.
Iranian troops take over an abandoned Irai oil well near their border. This seems like an effort to exert and show it's power to meddle and influence events in Iraq - especially with the upcoming depature of US troops. It is also trying to intimidate the Iraqi government and the oil companies as a result of their current deals, which will probably disadvantage Iran'sown oil industry.
Finally an interesting little story about the oil deals. They were done in a surprisingly open manner and braodcast live on TV to all Iraqis. The Iraqi government seems to have made some good deals - and that's coming from me - a massive critic of virtually everything they do. Unlike the expected fire-sale of everything to US oil companies without anyone knowing, they actually end up placing some good terms and choosing the best ones. At the end they sold nothing to US companies, with the oil remaining property of the Iraqi Government, who will pay companies a fixed fee to pump per barrel, with prices generally less than $2. This will mean that it is the Iraqi government who will end up having the last word in fixing the oil prices. Contracts are also fixed-term at 20 years.
But then again, the Saudi and Kuwaiti governments also have complete control over their oil production, though I am unsure of any arrangements they may have with private companies to pump it etc. Also more importantly, what will the US think of this? I'm sure they wont be too happy, and I don't think Iraq can handle pissing them again, or trusting the "Eastern Powers" - China and Russia - who were more than happy to stab us in the back. As members of the UN Security council, if either of them vetoed the UN Sanctions, they wont take place, and over a million children wont have died!
I am really interested in what you guys think of these recent events, as to be honest, I am now completely unsure myself. Take care all.
RE: Iranians, Oil, Chinese and Russians - 12/21/2009 12:41:22 AM
Neo - welcome back from the ivory tower land - and no better place than with family.
What do Americans think? - those few that really think on it, from a self interest stand point are pleased to have more oil on the market as it tends to keep prices down - if there is sufficient refining capacity to handle it all.
Those who are only about jobs, or about national pride would like to see the profits in the hands of American companies. Wait a minute, there are no american oil companies with reportable profits in the United States.
In a world growing more conservative, the risk of price fluctuations is taken by those whose prices goes up or down the most - as it is with all commodities whether its copper, coal, oil or trees. The wildest swings, the boom or bust, is at the extraction level where the resource can first gain a value.
If Iraq is wise it will move away from dependence on the raw material - oil - and develop downstream value added manufacturing. Make everybody happy and refine oil into gas, export it to Iran, and eliminate that excuse for developing nuclear weapons.
Do not worry so much about "pissing the US off". When signs like this point to Iraq's ability to act as a sovereign, independent nation, everyone wins. I don't believe anyone here will acknowledge a motive of anything other than greed on the part of the US. Thats fine - 300 years from now it will make no difference. But if Iraq misses the opportunity to improve it's lot because of an emotional fear of a potentially greedy motive on the part of the US then we have all lost. {PS greed would be an inspiration for oil producing nations or oil and gas rights holding companies to destroy Iraq's oil production potential - thereby raising the prices of their holdings. If you mistrust everyone, it will be reciprocated and perpetuated. What makes things work is the combination of "trust" and "verification". Unsubstantiated cynicism is an excuse for lack of character, lack of strength to "trust and verify".
Welcome back buddy, I hope all is well at the study front.
Explosions and mass killing is not new to Iraqis, it actually started the day they were invaded.
Iran’s efforts in getting it's hand on Iraq and its oil, is also not new, nor is it surprising. Who do you think triggered the Iraq-Iran war? Iran’s control of Iraqi oil will give it a bit of an advantage in competing against Saudi Arabia, in the oil game in the region. (shi'a-Sunni conflict).
As for the U.S. not getting Iraqi oil, do not worry, I can assure you that one or more of those companies who won the contracts, has some kind of “Under the table” or “Behind the curtains” connection with one or more U.S. oil companies.
_____________________________
Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves.
I don't know whether there are deals under the table, over it or in it. The bigger issue is that oil is a fungible commodity that once in a pipe line or ship can end up anywhere because it will be drawn to the highest profit. If you want to restrict the oil to markets other than the US I don’t see a way for that to not reduce the profit flowing to Iraq
I am not too interested in waging a war against unsubstantiated cynicism, but I also can't just ignore unsubstantiated allegations. My experience tells me that you get what you expect - if you expect greed driven conspiracies then you become unable to see the hand of friendship - even it is a single hand reaching out from a crowd of other people who could care less. Of course it could be a pan handler. That provides a support for cynicism, but is it really useful. I don’t think so.
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